Demographic Transition in East Asia

Total Fertility Rate, 1993

Data and Source

A rising standard of living usually occurs with and is reinforced by a fall in the population growth rate. While in the 1950s population growth rates in East Asia were comparable to those in other developing countries, population growth in the high performance East Asian economies is now significantly lower than in other developing economies. Between 1980 and 1993 the average annual growth rate of population in East Asia was 1.5% compared to 2.9% for Sub-Saharan Africa, 2.1% for South Asia and 2% for Latin America.

Modern medicine, better nutrition, improved transportation, as well as relatively few wars in the second half of this century, have led to a sharp fall in death rates in all developing countries. Since 1965 most developing countries have seen a fall of 30 to 40 percent in their crude death rate. In 1993, the number of deaths per thousand of population for the East Asian countries ranged between 6 and 8, while it was 10 for India, 7 for Brazil, 5 for Mexico, 9 for Kenya and 15 for Nigeria.

The distinguishing feature of the East Asian economies has been a rapid fall in fertility rates. The total fertility rate, shown in the graph, represents the number of children born to a woman if she lived to the end of her childbearing years. Only for Malaysia is this rate slightly above the regional average for any part of the developing world.

The difference between the birth rate (fertility rate) and the death rate determines the population growth rate. The relatively large reduction in fertility in the high performance East Asian economies led to sharper declines in population growth in East Asian economies than in other developing economies.

Rapid Economic Growth in East Asia